The possibility of war in Ukraine has been a hot topic in the news these past couple of weeks. There are so many factors that contribute to the matter with so many possible outcomes. In the most recent of news, both the government and the pro- Russian rebel leaders in Eastern Ukraine have agreed to start readying heavy weapons from the frontline. A stronger tension is starting to form in between the two groups, especially after the reported explosion in Kharkiv, the biggest city in east Russia. It was reported that the explosion happened today during a memorial rally, killing two people, a policeman and a demonstrator. After reading several articles, it was brought to my attention that this was an assumed attack by the rebels. Though they have four Russian suspects in custody, they don’t know for a fact that this was a war-like act. In my opinion, they shouldn’t act on this matter until they know forsure, for it could cause major problems for both sides.
The two sides decided upon a ceasefire agreement last week, which was already ignored by the rebels by capturing the town of Debaltseve. This resulted in the retreating of thousands of Ukrainian troops and twenty Ukrainian soliders’ deaths. Germany and France mediated this agreement, and are now questioning its effectiveness because of this. Now the question is, will they begin to advance deeper into “New Russia”? It is assumed that since the group has achieved Debaltseve, there will be a pause in their war-like activity. It was decided that both sides would exchange prisoners and on Sunday, the rebels will start withdrawing their weapons from the frontlines.
Even though Russia completely denies that they have troops in Eastern Ukraine right now, Moscow is now moving more armor and troops to a perspective target, the port of Mariupol. The ceasefire would be destroyed if an attack were to occur here. The Ukranian government is predicting the seizure of the city because of the geographical advantages it presents for the rebels. It would provide a direct land route between the Crimean peninsula and Russia.
To get a more well round look at the situation, I think it’s very important to keep in mind the United States and it’s involvement in the matter. As of right now, the US and its allies are discussing the resolutions for the conflict. It was stated by Secretary Kerry that President Obama is considering several options, such as imposing deeper sanctions for the truce and arming Ukrainian forces.
“In the next few days I anticipate that President Obama will evaluate the choices that are in front of him and will make his decision as to what the next step will be…..There are serious discussions taking place between us and our European allies as to what those next sanctions steps ought to be and when they ought to be implemented….I am confident some additional steps will be taken in response to the breaches of the ceasefire.” –Kerry
That’s it for this weeks post. Make sure to follow up on the conflict, because it’s bound to start unfolding soon. There are so many factors that may contribute to either of the outcomes. It’s going to be an interesting next couple of months for Ukraine and the Russian rebels.
-D
Demirjian, Karoun. “Is Mariupol the next Target of the Rebels’ Advance in Ukraine?” Washington Post. The Washington Post, n.d. Web.
Gatten, Emma. “Ukraine Crisis.” The Independent. Independent Digital News and Media, n.d. Web.
News, CBC. “Ukraine Preparing for ‘full-scale War,’ Says Former Envoy to Canada.” CBCnews. CBC/Radio Canada, 21 Feb. 2015. Web.
Zverev, Anton. “Rebels Order Weapons Pull-back as Ukraine Say Armor Arriving.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 22 Feb. 2015. Web.